Table of Contents
Used cooking oil prices climbed since January 2025
Immediate answer: Renewable diesel makers are buying more oil than the market can supply.
Higher demand pushed spot UCO above 52 ¢/lb in April and it still trades in the low 50s ¢ range. USDA’s latest yellow grease sheet shows Midwest bids as low as 33 ¢, proving location swings matter. When prices jump, you earn more per gallon if your collector adjusts rebates daily. Competitor price trackers send a weekly email, and Grease Connections pushes real time SMS alerts tied to our 24/7 monitoring dashboard. That speed helps you lock a higher share back before the next dip.
How will new renewable diesel refineries shape UCO demand this year?
Immediate answer: Every new plant adds another hungry buyer chasing the same grease.
Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur upgrade lets it switch 235 million of its 470 million gallons to sustainable aviation fuel starting Q1 2025. Its two sites now ship roughly 1.2 billion gallons of renewable diesel a year. Marathon’s Martinez conversion and other projects lift U.S. capacity past 4 billion gallons. More gallons equal stronger baseline demand, keeping UCO values firm even when crude drifts lower. Competitor collection firms renegotiate once a quarter; Grease Connections bakes automatic index clauses into your contract so the refinery rally flows to you the same week it happens.
See how the move from the Biodiesel Tax Credit to 45Z affects your revenue
Immediate answer: The new credit widens the price gap between domestic and imported grease.
45Z, effective 2025, excludes biodiesel made from imported UCO, cutting Chinese supply to U.S. blenders. A Senate tweak also slashed the higher Sustainable Aviation Fuel rate, squeezing some buyers. Meanwhile, EPA’s 2025 RFS set still lifts advanced biofuel volumes 3%, cementing demand. The result: restaurants with clean, fully traceable domestic oil win richer premiums. Competitors rely on paper manifests; Grease Connections tags every tote with blockchain backed GPS scans, proving origin and unlocking those extra cents per pound.
Why does global trade volatility matter for your grease check?
Immediate answer: Tariffs and dumping cases shuffle where millions of pounds can legally flow.
U.S. tariffs of 125% froze Chinese UCO shipments, so exporters rerouted to Europe, while China’s own SAF plants eat 100 120 k tons monthly cutting exports 20 40%. The EU answered with anti dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel to shield 6 000 local jobs. Indonesia now restricts UCO exports to feed its B40 program; Malaysia launched a futures market to fill the gap. Competitor hauls wait weeks at congested ports; Grease Connections pivots to domestic processors and schedules extra pickups, keeping your tanks empty and cash flow steady.
How do virgin oil prices steer the value of your waste oil?
Immediate answer: When soybean oil tops 50 ¢/lb, UCO becomes the bargain feedstock refiners chase.
July 2025 soybean oil futures sit at 52.30 ¢/lb. On June 13, CBOT contracts even hit the daily limit at 50.61 ¢. Analysts note each 1 ¢ rise in virgin oil lifts UCO bids roughly 0.6 ¢ as blenders arbitrage feedstocks. Competitors quote yesterday’s board price; Grease Connections’ live UCO index auto adjusts your rebate before the lunch rush, so rising bean oil fattens your margin not ours.
Need a steady partner to ride the UCO price roller coaster through 2025?
Immediate answer: A data driven collector keeps your revenue high when markets whip.
Fastmarkets still sees UCO in the low 50s ¢ range for the rest of 2025, with only a brief mid year dip before firming into 2026. Grainfuel Nexus warns forecasts hinge on policy and trade twists like 45Z or Indonesia’s quotas. Competitors hope prices hold; Grease Connections hedges with forward service agreements and a spill fine guarantee, protecting both your budget and your compliance score.
